Oscar Picks For 2018

Tonight, The Oscars will be handled out for movies that I did not see. But as is my want, I am still prepared to offer my two cents on who will win. My assessments are not based on who I think should win but based on the buzz, the zeitgeist if you will, on who is expected to win. 

As in years past,  I will make a main pick which I will award myself a full point if it wins. I will also make a back up pick which gets me ½ point if that choice wins. 

Let’s start with Best Actor.

• Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
• Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
• Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
• Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
• Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

From what I saw from the trailers for Roman J. Israel, Esq,. it looked like a major tour de force for Denzel but the movie hardly made a blip on the radar. Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread would probably be a solid lock for best actor if anyone had actually seen the film; decidedly tepid reviews for Phantom Thread have not helped. Also I think Daniel Day-Lewis’ announcement of his retirement from acting has not engendered any good will. What, Daniel Day-Lewis will no longer deign to grace us with the presence of his acting? Boo hoo. 

The tide seems to be leaning towards Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour. There’s something about playing Winston Churchill that brings the scenery chewing best out of an actor. John Lithgow devoured whole swathes of scenery in the first season of The Crown like it was an Easter ham. By all accounts, Oldman is appropriately irascible and forceful as Churchill facing down the blitzing Nazis attacking London in World War II.

So I’m giving this one to Gary Oldman for the Darkest Hour.

As a back up choice, maybe the Academy can drum up enough white liberal guilt to give the Best Actor award to

Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out. 

On to Best Actress. 

• Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
• Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
• Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
• Meryl Streep, The Post

I’m calling this one for Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. McDormand is a beloved actress with a  long record of quality character actor performances and so far this season, she has won most of the awards she’s been up for in this category. And the Academy does love an aggrieved mother fighting for justice.

For a back up pick, I’m going with Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water whose character is mute. The Academy also loves an acting challenge and gave the Best Actress statue to Holly Hunter for not speaking in The Piano a few years back.  

On the subject of Best Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress, Bill Murray used to have a bit on Saturday Night Live where he declared, “No one gives a damn about these.” I wish I didn’t because if I ever have a major hiccup on my Oscar picks, its usually in the supporting acting categories 

• Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
• Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
• Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
• Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Like his co-star Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell has been running the awards season table with his turn in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Also like McDormand, Rockwell has a long record of quality character actor roles.

I really don’t feel strongly about a back up pick. I would almost go with Christopher Plummer who famously reshot of all of Kevin Spacey’s bits for All the Money in the World. But so far, I’ve not seen a lot of award season love for this performance. 

• Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
• Allison Janney, I, Tonya
• Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
• Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
• Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Let’s give this one to Allison Janney in I, Tonya. I loved Allison in The West Wing and in her current TV series, Mom. And if the Academy loves an aggrieved mother fighting for justice in a leading role, they go nuts for a crazy mother in a supporting role.

Along those same lines, I’ll pick Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird as my back up.  

For Best Original Screenplay

• The Big Sick
• Get Out
• Lady Bird
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Let’s assume Three Billboards keeps up its award season romp ‘n’ stomp and wins for Best Original Screenplay.   

Let’s climb out on a limb and pick the script for Get Out as my back up.  

Among the contenders for Best Adapted Screenplay. 

• The Disaster Artist
• Logan
• Molly’s Game
• Mudbound
• Call Me By Your Name

Only Call Me By Your Name seems to have any cache as a potential winner so I’ll make it my main pick.

For a back up, let’s give it up for the “comic book movie” and give some props to Logan.  

For Best Director: 

• Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
• Jordan Peele, Get Out
• Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
• Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
• Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

The fact that Patty Jenkins is NOT on this list for Wonder Woman is a travesty.

Of the people who are on the list, I going with Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water as my main pick. This looks like a very distinctive movie, completely unlike anything else on the board.

For a back up pick, let’s stick it to The Man and go with Jordan Peele for Get Out.  

And on to Best Picture 

• Call Me By Your Name
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• Get Out
• Lady Bird
• Phantom Thread
• The Post
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

There are a lot of film critics would like to see Get Out win this thing. But I think the battle comes down to Three Billboards which has won everything so far and The Shape of Water which is just different enough to pique the curiosity of Academy voters and seems to have some momentum going into Sunday evening.

Main pick: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Back up: The Shape of Water

Oh, one more pick: Best Animated Feature

• The Boss Baby
• The Breadwinner
• Coco
• Ferdinand
• Loving Vincent

I think we can all agree that if Boss Baby does not win Best Animated Feature, there is no god.

If my daughter is reading this right now, let me show you what she’s seeing right now.

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OK, OK. I’m just kidding. Best Animated Feature must go, can only go to Coco.

There is NO back up choice.

So to summarize, here are my choices for this year’s Oscars along with back up picks. (Main choices are worth one point; back up choices are worth ½ point.)

Best Actor

• Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
• Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Best Actress

• Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Best Supporting Actor

• Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Best Supporting Actress

• Allison Janney, I, Tonya
• Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Best Original Screenplay

• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Get Out

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Call Me By Your Name
• Logan

Best Director

• Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
• Jordan Peele, Get Out

Best Picture

• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• The Shape of Water

: Best Animated Feature

• Coco
• NO back up pick 
  
  
  
  I’ll be back tomorrow with a round up of how I did.
  
  Until next time, remember to be good to one another and save me the aisle seat.