The Oscars 2019: The Predictions

Tonight the Oscars will be presented and is my want, I will offer up some guesses on possible winners for these categories:

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Actor

Best Actress

Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Original Screenplay

Best Animated Feature

Best Director

Best Picture

These selections are NOT who I want to win. They are not even based on my actual analysis of the films themselves; of the films covered in this post, I have see exactly 4 of them. 

And if you leave off the animated category, I have seen exactly 1 of them.

These selections are based on my observations of media covering media. From a variety of resources that cover all things entertainment, I endeavor to discern where the buzz is at.

Where the buzz is not is around the Oscar telecast itself. 

Devoid of a host, the show is expected to be a train wreck. With art films edging out actual box office successes, it is anticipated the show will be a bore.

In other words, nobody may give a damn about this topic. 

But nevertheless I will persist.

In each category, I will have a main pick and my back up. I score myself with 1 point for every main pick I get right and ½ point for every back up pick.  

Let’s start at the bottom with the supporting acting categories.  

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Best supporting nominations are the most likely to throw me a curve ball.  Right now, though, it looks like Mahershala Ali has the inside straight on this one. Over the rest, there does seems to be some sentiment behind Sam Elliott whose been acting for decades and only now getting his first Oscar nomination.

Main pick: Mahershala Ali

Back up: Sam Elliot

Best Supporting Actress 

Amy Adams, Vice

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Regina King seems to be riding a headwind into the Oscars after her win at the Golden Globes.  For the back up choice, we’re going to hear a lot about Roma so don’t discount Marina de Tavira. 

Main pick: Regina King

Back up: Marina de Tavira

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

While Bohemian Rhapsody has been rocked by scandal and criticism, Rami Malek continues to rise unscathed above the negative press. Time after time, Malek has scored at various awards and it looks like the momentum is still his going into tonight.

As for a back up pick, I sense there is a lot of sentiment to throw Bradley Cooper bone. But there does seem to be some appreciation for how deeply Christian Bale disappears in the role of Dick Cheney. Vice is pretty much a non-starter this awards season but Bale could surprise with a win.

Main pick: Rami Malek

Back up: Christian Bale

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

If it was up to me, I would say fuck it and give this thing to Olivia Colman. I haven’t seen The Favourite (but I wanted to) but knowing Colman, she would give an outrageously weird acceptance speech. 

I know there is a sizeable contingent that wants Lady Gaga to get this damn thing.

But right now, the momentum is going Glenn Close’s way for the generically titled “The Wife”. After her out of nowhere win for Best Actress at the Golden Globes, Close has been the darling of awards season and the expectation is she will win tonight. This is her 7th nomination but Glenn Close has never won before. And by all accounts, her role in The Wife is a worthy one to break that streak for. 

Main pick: Glenn Close

Back up: Hell, let’s give it to Lady Gaga.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 

(Joel Coen & Ethan Coen)

BlacKkKlansman 

(Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz, 

Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee)

Can You Ever Forgive Me? 

(Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty)

If Beale Street Could Talk 

(Barry Jenkins)

A Star Is Born 

(Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters)

The buzz is that this is a toss up between BlacKkKlansman and If Beale Street Could Talk. Having not seen either film, I would prefer to give it to If Beale Street Could Talks with just 1 writer as opposed to the committee that wrote BlacKkKlansman. However, it seems that most entertainment prognosticators are giving the edge to BlacKkKlansman. So I will therefore pick accordingly:

Main pick: BlacKkKlansman

Back up: If Beale Street Could Talk  

Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite 

(Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)

First Reformed 

(Paul Schrader)

Green Book 

(Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly)

Roma 

(Alfonso Cuarón)

Vice 

(Adam McKay)

A few weeks ago, it looked like Green Book might be heading to a win in this category. But just as the nominations were announced, some negative blowback began swirling around this movie.  The family of Don Shirley (played by Mahershala Ali) took issue with Shirley’s portrayal in the film. And a tweet from 2015 linked co-writer Nick Vallelonga to a negative anti-Muslim statement by Donald Trump which is particularly problematic in that Mahershala Ali is Muslim. 

It is possible that Green Book to overcome the negative publicity but it seems the entertainment literatti are leaning towards The Favourite. 

I saw one pundit pick Paul Schrader for his screenplay for First Reformed. No, I have never heard of this movie until I saw it in this category.

Main pick:  The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)

Back up:  Green Book (Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly)

Best Animated Feature

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Of the categories I pick for my Oscar guesses, Best Animated Feature usually gives me the best chance to have actually seen something. Usually this is a category that Disney/Pixar dominates but this year, the momentum is heading toward’s Sony’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and it’s a momentum I agree with.

I enjoyed Incredibles 2 but it failed for me to really resonate the way the original did. Ralph Breaks the Internet is bright and fun but it’s surprisingly thought provoking. Of the two, I personally would give Ralph the edge but I think the Academy voters might see Incredibles 2 as the better film and would stand the best chance of an upset over Spidey.  

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse serves up something new and challenging with a mix of 2D and 3D animation with art styles reflecting Spider-Man comics.

Main pick: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Back up: Incredibles 2

Best Director

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Adam McKay, Vice

From what I'm picking up, there is considerable enthusiasm for Spike Lee to win for Best Director with this, his believe it or not first nomination. 

But the consensus I'm picking up is that the Academy is gung ho for the artistry of Alfonso Cuarón direction for Roma. 

Main pick: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Back up: Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Best Picture

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice 

The 1 live action movie that I actually saw in 2018 was Black Panther and yes, I would very much like to see it win.

But the odds are very much against it. 

Usually for a movie to carry the day as Best Picture, it has to have some support elsewhere and Black Panther was denied any nominations in the acting categories and director Ryan Coogler didn't get a directing nod either. 

On a side note, it still burns me that Mary Poppins Returns got shafted with no Best Picture nod and ignored in all the acting categories. I mean, come on!   

So far, the momentum in the pre-Oscar buzz is going the way of Roma. It is by all accounts a very well made movie and would be deserving winner. It is also the sort of pretentious 

art film that the Academy gets completely horny for but separates them from the mainstream movie going public. 

I'm not saying commerce should influence art. If Roma is a good movie, then it deserves whatever awards it may win. But the members of the Academy complain about declining ratings for the Oscars awards telecast then nominate movies that no one has seen. 

There is an outside chance that BlacKkKlansman could take the top spot tonight at the Oscars but for now, it looks like Roma is on target for the Best Picture win.

Main pick: Roma

Back up: BlacKkKlansman

So those are my guess for who will win at the Oscars tonight. Tomorrow, look for The Oscars 2019: The Aftermath where I will list the winners in these categories compared to my predictions. 

Until next time, remember to be good to one another and to save me the aisle seat.