No Deal

So Li’l Donald Trump put on his big boy pants to make a big boy decision to withdraw the United States from the Iran nuclear deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA), likely stops Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon for about a decade.

On July 14, 2015, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, Germany, and the European Union agreed to lift sanctions imposed on Iran’s nuclear program, giving Iran greater access to the global economy. In return, Iran agreed to start curbing its nuclear program, limiting it to strictly peaceful applications, and to allow comprehensive inspections of key nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency to ensure compliance. 

Allow me to summarize. 

The World: Hey, Iran? Would you like money?

Iran: Yeah, we would like money!

The World: But we don’t want you to have a nuclear bomb.

Iran: If we say “no” to bomb, will you say “yes” to money?

The World: We can dig it.

Iran: Sweet!

So far, the deal is working. Inspectors in Iran have reported back that Iran is not making a nuclear bomb.

But Trump has long derided it as the “worst deal ever”. 

OK, if the point of the JCPA was to keep Iran from having a nuclear bomb and Iran does not in fact have a nuclear bomb, how can it be the “worst deal ever”?

Well, believe it or not, Trump has a list of three main reasons for why it’s the “worst deal ever”. 

Number One: Iran continues to work against US interests in the Middle East by testing ballistic missiles, supporting Bashar al-Assad in Syria and terrorist groups like Hezbollah, and countering its archenemy, Saudi Arabia.  

None one disputes that Iran can be a pain in the ass on the world stage. The nuclear deal addresses Iran’s ability to build a nuclear bomb. It is not designed in and of itself to keep Iran from being a pain in the ass on the world stage. It does keep them from be a nuclear powered pain in the ass on the world stage.

Number Two: Certain restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program have sunset clauses. The restraints on Iran’s centrifuges disappear after 10 years, and the limits on uranium enrichment go away five years after that.

This point has been sticking in the crawl of political conservatives since 2015 and Trump’s just running with that ball because it keeps his base happy. So why are those sunset clauses in there? Iran would likely not agree to a deal to restrict nuclear capabilities forever. The centrifuges and the uranium enrichment gives Iran something to negotiate with in the future. What pisses off political conservatives is that this was a negotiation, not a total capitulation to American interests.

Number Three:  Trump says he can make a better deal to curb Iran’s missile tests, allow more inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities, and remove the time limits on uranium and centrifuge restrictions.  

Trump’s idea of a “better deal” is Iran’s total capitulation to American interests. This is not a better deal for Iran. So why should Iran want to be party to such a deal?

Of course, we know the one main reason Li’l Donnie wants out of the Iran nuclear deal: Obama wanted it. Trump therefore does not. Which is pretty much standard operating procedure for Li’l Donnie.  

So what will Iran do?

Well that depends.

Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said last week that Iran would “most likely” leave the deal if the US withdrew from it.

So instead of stalling Iran’s ability to build a nuclear bomb for another 10 years, we give them leave to go build one now. Again, why should Iran want to be party to a deal that others won’t keep? Of course this plays right into the paranoid narative of the hard right conservatives in America: Iran is an enemy to be defeated, not to make deals with.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Monday that the current deal could survive even without the US.

It would really make Trump look bad if this happens, the rest of the world getting along in peace and prosperity with America looking in from the outside, our power and influence diminished.